Germany economic indicators
Germany scores 24 out of 100 on Bullrun's six-pillar economic stress index, which places it in the "Calm" band. The score draws on 14 of the 14 indicators held here, covering 6 of 6 pillars. The freshest reading is from 2026-09; the oldest that feeds the score is from 2025.
Economic stress score
- Composite stress24 / 100 Calm
- Pillars covered6 / 6
- Indicators scored14 / 14
| Pillar | Stress | Band | Indicators scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 20 / 100 | Calm | 3 / 3 |
| Housing | 53 / 100 | Elevated | 3 / 3 |
| Credit | 4 / 100 | Calm | 3 / 3 |
| Fiscal | 31 / 100 | Watch | 2 / 2 |
| External | 4 / 100 | Calm | 1 / 1 |
| Cycle | 34 / 100 | Watch | 2 / 2 |
Higher is more stressed. A pillar holding readings but scoring none - every one stale - shows "n/a" rather than zero.
Labour
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source | Stress | How it is scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 2026-09 | OECD | 16 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
| Unemployment momentum | 0.27pp | 2026-09 | OECD | 40 | Sahm gap: 3-month average against its own 12-month low |
| Youth unemployment (15-24) | 7.5% | 2026-09 | OECD | 5 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
Housing
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source | Stress | How it is scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real house prices, YoY | -1.95% | 2026-Q2 | BIS | 40 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
| Price-to-income vs long-run average | -15.33% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | 48 | Scored against its own last 80 quarters |
| Price-to-rent vs long-run average | 10.68% | 2026-Q2 | OECD | 71 | Scored against its own last 80 quarters |
Credit
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source | Stress | How it is scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit-to-GDP gap | -4.18pp | 2026-Q1 | BIS | 6 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
| Household debt service (% of income) | 5.4% | 2026-Q1 | BIS | 6 | Scored against its own last 80 quarters |
| Household credit (% of GDP) | 47.9% | 2026-Q1 | BIS | 1 | Scored against its own last 80 quarters |
Fiscal
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source | Stress | How it is scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government debt (% of GDP) | 62.7% | 2025 | IMF | 23 | Scored against its own last 20 years |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -2.9% | 2025 | IMF | 39 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
External
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source | Stress | How it is scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account (% of GDP) | 4.5% | 2025 | IMF | 4 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
Cycle
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source | Stress | How it is scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 1.25% | 2026-Q3 | OECD | 39 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
| Consumer inflation | 3.26% | 2026-09 | OECD | 28 | Scored on a fixed cross-country scale |
How this score is built
Each indicator is turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Readings average into six pillars, and the pillars into the composite.
Three rules keep a thinly-covered country from looking calm: a country covering fewer than 4 of 6 pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one; coverage is printed on the face of the score rather than hidden in a footnote; and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, instead of being dropped.
Indicators come from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies, so the periods above genuinely differ from row to row - a monthly unemployment print and an annual current-account balance can be more than a year apart. See the data license.
Germany in its region
Europe has a hub of its own: growth, inflation, unemployment, government debt and composite stress for every economy in it that we hold a reading for, plus the region's larger listed companies. Europe Markets.
Compare with other economies
All 107 scored economies · Global markets dashboard · Screen Germany stocks