Country economic health
Every economy Bullrun can score on its six-pillar stress index - labour, housing, credit, fiscal, external and cycle - ranked most stressed first. Higher is more stressed. An economy covering too few pillars is absent rather than shown as calm, so this list is shorter than the map behind it.
Stress ranking
| # | Economy | Stress score | Band | Latest input |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ukraine | 75 | Stretched | 2025 |
| 2 | Suriname | 69 | Stretched | 2025 |
| 3 | Lebanon | 66 | Stretched | 2025 |
| 4 | Romania | 66 | Stretched | 2026-07 |
| 5 | Bahamas | 59 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 6 | Bolivia | 58 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 7 | Iran | 58 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 8 | Jordan | 58 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 9 | Moldova | 57 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 10 | North Macedonia | 56 | Elevated | 2026-07 |
| 11 | Saudi Arabia | 55 | Elevated | 2026-08 |
| 12 | Bulgaria | 53 | Elevated | 2026-07 |
| 13 | Sudan | 53 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 14 | Egypt | 52 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 15 | Fiji | 52 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 16 | Mauritius | 52 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 17 | Slovakia | 52 | Elevated | 2026-07 |
| 18 | Tunisia | 50 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 19 | Brazil | 48 | Elevated | 2026-08 |
| 20 | Colombia | 48 | Elevated | 2026-08 |
| 21 | Argentina | 47 | Elevated | 2026-08 |
| 22 | Armenia | 47 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 23 | Latvia | 47 | Elevated | 2026-08 |
| 24 | Kazakhstan | 46 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 25 | New Zealand | 46 | Elevated | 2026-Q2 |
| 26 | Chile | 45 | Elevated | 2026-08 |
| 27 | Panama | 45 | Elevated | 2025 |
| 28 | Australia | 44 | Watch | 2026-07 |
| 29 | Belgium | 44 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 30 | Bhutan | 44 | Watch | 2025 |
| 31 | Bosnia and Herz. | 44 | Watch | 2026-06 |
| 32 | Canada | 43 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 33 | Mongolia | 43 | Watch | 2025 |
| 34 | Iceland | 42 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 35 | India | 42 | Watch | 2026-07 |
| 36 | Kyrgyzstan | 42 | Watch | 2025 |
| 37 | China | 41 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 38 | Costa Rica | 41 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 39 | France | 41 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 40 | Russia | 41 | Watch | 2026-Q2 |
| 41 | United States | 40 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 42 | Uruguay | 40 | Watch | 2025 |
| 43 | Uzbekistan | 40 | Watch | 2025 |
| 44 | Bahrain | 39 | Watch | 2025 |
| 45 | Barbados | 39 | Watch | 2025 |
| 46 | Dominican Rep. | 39 | Watch | 2025 |
| 47 | Georgia | 39 | Watch | 2025 |
| 48 | Hong Kong | 39 | Watch | 2026-Q1 |
| 49 | United Kingdom | 39 | Watch | 2026-07 |
| 50 | Cyprus | 38 | Watch | 2026-07 |
| 51 | El Salvador | 38 | Watch | 2025 |
| 52 | Finland | 38 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 53 | Israel | 38 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 54 | Japan | 38 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 55 | Mexico | 38 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 56 | Morocco | 38 | Watch | 2026-Q1 |
| 57 | Serbia | 38 | Watch | 2026-Q1 |
| 58 | South Africa | 38 | Watch | 2026-07 |
| 59 | Sri Lanka | 38 | Watch | 2025 |
| 60 | Croatia | 37 | Watch | 2026-07 |
| 61 | Czechia | 37 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 62 | Greece | 37 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 63 | Philippines | 37 | Watch | 2026-Q1 |
| 64 | Estonia | 36 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 65 | Lithuania | 36 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 66 | Pakistan | 36 | Watch | 2025 |
| 67 | Paraguay | 36 | Watch | 2025 |
| 68 | Trinidad and Tobago | 36 | Watch | 2025 |
| 69 | Brunei | 35 | Watch | 2025 |
| 70 | Spain | 35 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 71 | Turkey | 35 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 72 | Austria | 33 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 73 | Indonesia | 33 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 74 | Euro Area | 32 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 75 | Honduras | 32 | Watch | 2025 |
| 76 | Norway | 32 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 77 | Portugal | 32 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 78 | Seychelles | 32 | Watch | 2025 |
| 79 | Belarus | 31 | Watch | 2025 |
| 80 | Italy | 31 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 81 | Poland | 31 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 82 | Switzerland | 31 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 83 | Belize | 30 | Watch | 2025 |
| 84 | Hungary | 30 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 85 | Luxembourg | 30 | Watch | 2026-08 |
| 86 | Thailand | 30 | Watch | 2026-Q1 |
| 87 | Malaysia | 29 | Calm | 2026-Q1 |
| 88 | Sweden | 29 | Calm | 2026-08 |
| 89 | Azerbaijan | 27 | Calm | 2025 |
| 90 | San Marino | 27 | Calm | 2025 |
| 91 | South Korea | 27 | Calm | 2026-08 |
| 92 | Albania | 26 | Calm | 2025 |
| 93 | Jamaica | 26 | Calm | 2025 |
| 94 | Ireland | 25 | Calm | 2026-08 |
| 95 | Peru | 25 | Calm | 2026-Q1 |
| 96 | Germany | 24 | Calm | 2026-08 |
| 97 | Netherlands | 24 | Calm | 2026-08 |
| 98 | Ecuador | 22 | Calm | 2025 |
| 99 | Denmark | 21 | Calm | 2026-08 |
| 100 | Slovenia | 21 | Calm | 2026-08 |
| 101 | Cabo Verde | 20 | Calm | 2025 |
| 102 | Malta | 20 | Calm | 2026-07 |
| 103 | Singapore | 18 | Calm | 2026-Q1 |
| 104 | Vietnam | 13 | Calm | 2025 |
| 105 | Nicaragua | 12 | Calm | 2025 |
| 106 | Andorra | 8 | Calm | 2025 |
| 107 | Aruba | 8 | Calm | 2025 |
How many economies sit in each band
| Band | Score range | Economies |
|---|---|---|
| Calm | under 30 | 21 |
| Watch | 30 to 44 | 59 |
| Elevated | 45 to 59 | 23 |
| Stretched | 60 and above | 4 |
How the score works
Fourteen indicators are each turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies, as a debt ratio or a house-price ratio does - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Those readings average into six pillars (labour, housing, credit, fiscal, external, cycle), and the pillars into the composite.
An economy covering fewer than four of the six pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one, which is why this list holds 107 economies and not every country on the map: a thin input set would otherwise read as a calm economy. Coverage is printed on the face of every country's page, and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, rather than being quietly dropped.
Built from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies. See the data license.