Country economic health

Every economy Bullrun can score on its six-pillar stress index - labour, housing, credit, fiscal, external and cycle - ranked most stressed first. Higher is more stressed. An economy covering too few pillars is absent rather than shown as calm, so this list is shorter than the map behind it.

Stress ranking

#EconomyStress scoreBandLatest input
1Ukraine75Stretched2025
2Suriname69Stretched2025
3Lebanon66Stretched2025
4Romania61Stretched2026-09
5Sudan61Stretched2025
6Bolivia58Elevated2025
7Jordan58Elevated2025
8Moldova58Elevated2025
9Bahamas54Elevated2025
10Saudi Arabia54Elevated2026-Q3
11North Macedonia53Elevated2026-09
12Egypt52Elevated2025
13Latvia52Elevated2026-10
14Slovakia52Elevated2026-09
15Bulgaria51Elevated2026-09
16Fiji51Elevated2025
17Iran51Elevated2025
18Mauritius51Elevated2025
19Tunisia51Elevated2025
20Armenia50Elevated2025
21Colombia48Elevated2026-09
22Argentina47Elevated2026-09
23Philippines47Elevated2026-Q2
24Brazil46Elevated2026-09
25Kazakhstan46Elevated2025
26Panama46Elevated2025
27Australia45Elevated2026-09
28Belgium45Elevated2026-10
29New Zealand45Elevated2026-Q2
30Canada44Watch2026-10
31Chile44Watch2026-10
32France44Watch2026-09
33Iceland44Watch2026-10
34Bhutan43Watch2025
35India43Watch2026-09
36Mongolia43Watch2025
37Hong Kong42Watch2026-Q2
38United States42Watch2026-10
39China41Watch2026-10
40Kyrgyzstan41Watch2025
41Lithuania41Watch2026-10
42Russia41Watch2026-Q2
43Bosnia and Herz.40Watch2026-08
44Costa Rica40Watch2026-Q3
45Estonia40Watch2026-10
46South Africa40Watch2026-09
47Uruguay40Watch2025
48Uzbekistan40Watch2025
49Barbados39Watch2025
50Dominican Rep.39Watch2025
51Finland39Watch2026-09
52Georgia39Watch2025
53Turkey39Watch2026-09
54Israel38Watch2026-09
55Morocco38Watch2026-Q2
56Serbia38Watch2026-Q2
57Bahrain37Watch2025
58El Salvador37Watch2025
59Norway37Watch2026-10
60United Kingdom37Watch2026-09
61Greece36Watch2026-10
62Mexico36Watch2026-10
63Pakistan36Watch2025
64Spain36Watch2026-09
65Trinidad and Tobago36Watch2025
66Brunei35Watch2025
67Croatia35Watch2026-09
68Czechia35Watch2026-09
69Austria34Watch2026-09
70Cyprus34Watch2026-09
71Paraguay33Watch2025
72Seychelles33Watch2025
73Italy32Watch2026-09
74Luxembourg32Watch2026-10
75Poland32Watch2026-09
76Euro Area31Watch2026-10
77Hungary31Watch2026-10
78Indonesia31Watch2026-10
79Malaysia31Watch2026-Q2
80Portugal31Watch2026-09
81Sri Lanka31Watch2025
82Thailand31Watch2026-Q2
83Japan29Calm2026-09
84Switzerland29Calm2026-10
85Belarus28Calm2025
86South Korea28Calm2026-10
87Sweden28Calm2026-09
88Azerbaijan27Calm2025
89Belize27Calm2025
90Peru25Calm2026-Q1
91San Marino25Calm2025
92Albania24Calm2025
93Germany24Calm2026-09
94Honduras24Calm2025
95Jamaica24Calm2025
96Slovenia24Calm2026-10
97Ecuador22Calm2025
98Cabo Verde21Calm2025
99Denmark21Calm2026-10
100Ireland21Calm2026-10
101Malta19Calm2026-09
102Singapore17Calm2026-Q2
103Netherlands16Calm2026-09
104Nicaragua11Calm2025
105Vietnam10Calm2025
106Aruba9Calm2025
107Andorra8Calm2025

How many economies sit in each band

BandScore rangeEconomies
Calmunder 3025
Watch30 to 4453
Elevated45 to 5924
Stretched60 and above5

How the score works

Fourteen indicators are each turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies, as a debt ratio or a house-price ratio does - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Those readings average into six pillars (labour, housing, credit, fiscal, external, cycle), and the pillars into the composite.

An economy covering fewer than four of the six pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one, which is why this list holds 107 economies and not every country on the map: a thin input set would otherwise read as a calm economy. Coverage is printed on the face of every country's page, and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, rather than being quietly dropped.

Built from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies. See the data license.

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