Country economic health

Every economy Bullrun can score on its six-pillar stress index - labour, housing, credit, fiscal, external and cycle - ranked most stressed first. Higher is more stressed. An economy covering too few pillars is absent rather than shown as calm, so this list is shorter than the map behind it.

Stress ranking

#EconomyStress scoreBandLatest input
1Ukraine75Stretched2025
2Suriname69Stretched2025
3Lebanon66Stretched2025
4Romania66Stretched2026-07
5Bahamas59Elevated2025
6Bolivia58Elevated2025
7Iran58Elevated2025
8Jordan58Elevated2025
9Moldova57Elevated2025
10North Macedonia56Elevated2026-07
11Saudi Arabia55Elevated2026-08
12Bulgaria53Elevated2026-07
13Sudan53Elevated2025
14Egypt52Elevated2025
15Fiji52Elevated2025
16Mauritius52Elevated2025
17Slovakia52Elevated2026-07
18Tunisia50Elevated2025
19Brazil48Elevated2026-08
20Colombia48Elevated2026-08
21Argentina47Elevated2026-08
22Armenia47Elevated2025
23Latvia47Elevated2026-08
24Kazakhstan46Elevated2025
25New Zealand46Elevated2026-Q2
26Chile45Elevated2026-08
27Panama45Elevated2025
28Australia44Watch2026-07
29Belgium44Watch2026-08
30Bhutan44Watch2025
31Bosnia and Herz.44Watch2026-06
32Canada43Watch2026-08
33Mongolia43Watch2025
34Iceland42Watch2026-08
35India42Watch2026-07
36Kyrgyzstan42Watch2025
37China41Watch2026-08
38Costa Rica41Watch2026-08
39France41Watch2026-08
40Russia41Watch2026-Q2
41United States40Watch2026-08
42Uruguay40Watch2025
43Uzbekistan40Watch2025
44Bahrain39Watch2025
45Barbados39Watch2025
46Dominican Rep.39Watch2025
47Georgia39Watch2025
48Hong Kong39Watch2026-Q1
49United Kingdom39Watch2026-07
50Cyprus38Watch2026-07
51El Salvador38Watch2025
52Finland38Watch2026-08
53Israel38Watch2026-08
54Japan38Watch2026-08
55Mexico38Watch2026-08
56Morocco38Watch2026-Q1
57Serbia38Watch2026-Q1
58South Africa38Watch2026-07
59Sri Lanka38Watch2025
60Croatia37Watch2026-07
61Czechia37Watch2026-08
62Greece37Watch2026-08
63Philippines37Watch2026-Q1
64Estonia36Watch2026-08
65Lithuania36Watch2026-08
66Pakistan36Watch2025
67Paraguay36Watch2025
68Trinidad and Tobago36Watch2025
69Brunei35Watch2025
70Spain35Watch2026-08
71Turkey35Watch2026-08
72Austria33Watch2026-08
73Indonesia33Watch2026-08
74Euro Area32Watch2026-08
75Honduras32Watch2025
76Norway32Watch2026-08
77Portugal32Watch2026-08
78Seychelles32Watch2025
79Belarus31Watch2025
80Italy31Watch2026-08
81Poland31Watch2026-08
82Switzerland31Watch2026-08
83Belize30Watch2025
84Hungary30Watch2026-08
85Luxembourg30Watch2026-08
86Thailand30Watch2026-Q1
87Malaysia29Calm2026-Q1
88Sweden29Calm2026-08
89Azerbaijan27Calm2025
90San Marino27Calm2025
91South Korea27Calm2026-08
92Albania26Calm2025
93Jamaica26Calm2025
94Ireland25Calm2026-08
95Peru25Calm2026-Q1
96Germany24Calm2026-08
97Netherlands24Calm2026-08
98Ecuador22Calm2025
99Denmark21Calm2026-08
100Slovenia21Calm2026-08
101Cabo Verde20Calm2025
102Malta20Calm2026-07
103Singapore18Calm2026-Q1
104Vietnam13Calm2025
105Nicaragua12Calm2025
106Andorra8Calm2025
107Aruba8Calm2025

How many economies sit in each band

BandScore rangeEconomies
Calmunder 3021
Watch30 to 4459
Elevated45 to 5923
Stretched60 and above4

How the score works

Fourteen indicators are each turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies, as a debt ratio or a house-price ratio does - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Those readings average into six pillars (labour, housing, credit, fiscal, external, cycle), and the pillars into the composite.

An economy covering fewer than four of the six pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one, which is why this list holds 107 economies and not every country on the map: a thin input set would otherwise read as a calm economy. Coverage is printed on the face of every country's page, and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, rather than being quietly dropped.

Built from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies. See the data license.

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