Japan scores 38 out of 100 on Bullrun's six-pillar economic stress index, which places it in the "Watch" band. The score draws on 14 of the 14 indicators held here, covering 6 of 6 pillars. The freshest reading is from 2026-08; the oldest that feeds the score is from 2025-Q4.
Economic stress score
Composite stress38 / 100Watch
Pillars covered6 / 6
Indicators scored14 / 14
Pillar
Stress
Band
Indicators scored
Labour
11 / 100
Calm
3 / 3
Housing
70 / 100
Stretched
3 / 3
Credit
65 / 100
Stretched
3 / 3
Fiscal
49 / 100
Elevated
2 / 2
External
3 / 100
Calm
1 / 1
Cycle
29 / 100
Calm
2 / 2
Higher is more stressed. A pillar holding readings but scoring none - every one stale - shows "n/a" rather than zero.
Labour
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Unemployment rate
2.4%
2026-07
OECD
5
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Unemployment momentum
0pp
2026-07
OECD
22
Sahm gap: 3-month average against its own 12-month low
Youth unemployment (15-24)
3.4%
2026-07
OECD
5
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Housing
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real house prices, YoY
2.31%
2025-Q4
BIS
20
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Price-to-income vs long-run average
-12.39%
2025-Q4
OECD
92
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Price-to-rent vs long-run average
9.41%
2025-Q4
OECD
99
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Credit
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Credit-to-GDP gap
5.67pp
2026-Q1
BIS
63
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Household debt service (% of income)
7.5%
2026-Q1
BIS
81
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Household credit (% of GDP)
60.8%
2026-Q1
BIS
52
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Fiscal
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Government debt (% of GDP)
206.5%
2025
IMF
73
Scored against its own last 20 years
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-1.1%
2025
IMF
24
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
External
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Current account (% of GDP)
4.8%
2025
IMF
3
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Cycle
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real GDP growth
0.73%
2026-Q2
OECD
48
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Consumer inflation
1.9%
2026-08
OECD
9
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
How this score is built
Each indicator is turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Readings average into six pillars, and the pillars into the composite.
Three rules keep a thinly-covered country from looking calm: a country covering fewer than 4 of 6 pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one; coverage is printed on the face of the score rather than hidden in a footnote; and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, instead of being dropped.
Indicators come from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies, so the periods above genuinely differ from row to row - a monthly unemployment print and an annual current-account balance can be more than a year apart. See the data license.