South Africa scores 40 out of 100 on Bullrun's six-pillar economic stress index, which places it in the "Watch" band. The score draws on 10 of the 11 indicators held here, covering 6 of 6 pillars. The freshest reading is from 2026-09; the oldest that feeds the score is from 2025.
Economic stress score
Composite stress40 / 100Watch
Pillars covered6 / 6
Indicators scored10 / 11
Pillar
Stress
Band
Indicators scored
Labour
59 / 100
Elevated
2 / 2
Housing
22 / 100
Calm
1 / 2
Credit
5 / 100
Calm
2 / 2
Fiscal
82 / 100
Stretched
2 / 2
External
24 / 100
Calm
1 / 1
Cycle
45 / 100
Elevated
2 / 2
Higher is more stressed. A pillar holding readings but scoring none - every one stale - shows "n/a" rather than zero.
Labour
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Unemployment rate
32.4%
2025
IMF
100
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Unemployment momentum
-0.2pp
2025
IMF
17
Change against a year earlier
Housing
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real house prices, YoY
1.32%
2026-Q2
BIS
22
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Price-to-income vs long-run average
-5.93%
2025-Q4 (stale)
OECD
not scored
Not scored - last published 2025-Q4
Credit
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Credit-to-GDP gap
-4.25pp
2026-Q1
BIS
6
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Household credit (% of GDP)
33.7%
2026-Q1
BIS
4
Scored against its own last 73 quarters
Fiscal
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Government debt (% of GDP)
78.4%
2025
IMF
98
Scored against its own last 20 years
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-5.6%
2025
IMF
66
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
External
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Current account (% of GDP)
-0.5%
2025
IMF
24
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Cycle
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real GDP growth
0.85%
2026-Q2
OECD
46
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Consumer inflation
4.35%
2026-09
OECD
43
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
How this score is built
Each indicator is turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Readings average into six pillars, and the pillars into the composite.
Three rules keep a thinly-covered country from looking calm: a country covering fewer than 4 of 6 pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one; coverage is printed on the face of the score rather than hidden in a footnote; and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, instead of being dropped.
Indicators come from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies, so the periods above genuinely differ from row to row - a monthly unemployment print and an annual current-account balance can be more than a year apart. See the data license.
South Africa in its region
Africa has a hub of its own: growth, inflation, unemployment, government debt and composite stress for every economy in it that we hold a reading for, plus the region's larger listed companies. Africa Markets.