Iceland scores 42 out of 100 on Bullrun's six-pillar economic stress index, which places it in the "Watch" band. The score draws on 9 of the 9 indicators held here, covering 5 of 6 pillars. The freshest reading is from 2026-08; the oldest that feeds the score is from 2025.
Economic stress score
Composite stress42 / 100Watch
Pillars covered5 / 6
Indicators scored9 / 9
Pillar
Stress
Band
Indicators scored
Labour
45 / 100
Elevated
3 / 3
Housing
40 / 100
Watch
1 / 1
Credit
n/a
n/a
0 / 0
Fiscal
21 / 100
Calm
2 / 2
External
51 / 100
Elevated
1 / 1
Cycle
55 / 100
Elevated
2 / 2
Higher is more stressed. A pillar holding readings but scoring none - every one stale - shows "n/a" rather than zero.
Labour
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Unemployment rate
5.8%
2026-07
OECD
33
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Unemployment momentum
1.57pp
2026-07
OECD
86
Sahm gap: 3-month average against its own 12-month low
Youth unemployment (15-24)
11.2%
2026-07
OECD
16
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Housing
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real house prices, YoY
-1.95%
2026-Q1
BIS
40
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Fiscal
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Government debt (% of GDP)
56.1%
2025
IMF
3
Scored against its own last 20 years
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-2.8%
2025
IMF
38
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
External
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Current account (% of GDP)
-3.6%
2025
IMF
51
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Cycle
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real GDP growth
0.3%
2026-Q2
OECD
55
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Consumer inflation
5.6%
2026-08
OECD
54
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
How this score is built
Each indicator is turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Readings average into six pillars, and the pillars into the composite.
Three rules keep a thinly-covered country from looking calm: a country covering fewer than 4 of 6 pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one; coverage is printed on the face of the score rather than hidden in a footnote; and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, instead of being dropped.
Indicators come from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies, so the periods above genuinely differ from row to row - a monthly unemployment print and an annual current-account balance can be more than a year apart. See the data license.