Turkey scores 35 out of 100 on Bullrun's six-pillar economic stress index, which places it in the "Watch" band. The score draws on 11 of the 11 indicators held here, covering 6 of 6 pillars. The freshest reading is from 2026-08; the oldest that feeds the score is from 2025.
Economic stress score
Composite stress35 / 100Watch
Pillars covered6 / 6
Indicators scored11 / 11
Pillar
Stress
Band
Indicators scored
Labour
35 / 100
Watch
3 / 3
Housing
50 / 100
Elevated
1 / 1
Credit
8 / 100
Calm
2 / 2
Fiscal
21 / 100
Calm
2 / 2
External
36 / 100
Watch
1 / 1
Cycle
61 / 100
Stretched
2 / 2
Higher is more stressed. A pillar holding readings but scoring none - every one stale - shows "n/a" rather than zero.
Labour
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Unemployment rate
8.1%
2026-07
OECD
56
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Unemployment momentum
-0.03pp
2026-07
OECD
21
Sahm gap: 3-month average against its own 12-month low
Youth unemployment (15-24)
14.5%
2026-07
OECD
28
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Housing
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real house prices, YoY
-3.28%
2026-Q1
BIS
50
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Credit
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Credit-to-GDP gap
-24.68pp
2026-Q1
BIS
0
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Household credit (% of GDP)
10.1%
2026-Q1
BIS
16
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Fiscal
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Government debt (% of GDP)
23.5%
2025
IMF
3
Scored against its own last 20 years
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-2.8%
2025
IMF
38
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
External
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Current account (% of GDP)
-1.9%
2025
IMF
36
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Cycle
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real GDP growth
2.56%
2026-Q2
OECD
21
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Consumer inflation
31.51%
2026-08
OECD
100
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
How this score is built
Each indicator is turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Readings average into six pillars, and the pillars into the composite.
Three rules keep a thinly-covered country from looking calm: a country covering fewer than 4 of 6 pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one; coverage is printed on the face of the score rather than hidden in a footnote; and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, instead of being dropped.
Indicators come from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies, so the periods above genuinely differ from row to row - a monthly unemployment print and an annual current-account balance can be more than a year apart. See the data license.