New Zealand scores 46 out of 100 on Bullrun's six-pillar economic stress index, which places it in the "Elevated" band. The score draws on 12 of the 12 indicators held here, covering 6 of 6 pillars. The freshest reading is from 2026-Q2; the oldest that feeds the score is from 2025.
Economic stress score
Composite stress46 / 100Elevated
Pillars covered6 / 6
Indicators scored12 / 12
Pillar
Stress
Band
Indicators scored
Labour
42 / 100
Watch
2 / 2
Housing
57 / 100
Elevated
3 / 3
Credit
29 / 100
Calm
2 / 2
Fiscal
74 / 100
Stretched
2 / 2
External
52 / 100
Elevated
1 / 1
Cycle
21 / 100
Calm
2 / 2
Higher is more stressed. A pillar holding readings but scoring none - every one stale - shows "n/a" rather than zero.
Labour
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Unemployment rate
5.3%
2025
IMF
28
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Unemployment momentum
0.5pp
2025
IMF
55
Change against a year earlier
Housing
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real house prices, YoY
-3.72%
2026-Q1
BIS
52
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Price-to-income vs long-run average
25.24%
2025-Q4
OECD
48
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Price-to-rent vs long-run average
70.63%
2025-Q4
OECD
71
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Credit
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Credit-to-GDP gap
-7.72pp
2026-Q1
BIS
2
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Household credit (% of GDP)
91%
2026-Q1
BIS
56
Scored against its own last 80 quarters
Fiscal
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Government debt (% of GDP)
54.7%
2025
IMF
98
Scored against its own last 20 years
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-3.9%
2025
IMF
49
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
External
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Current account (% of GDP)
-3.7%
2025
IMF
52
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Cycle
Indicator
Latest
Period
Source
Stress
How it is scored
Real GDP growth
2.55%
2026-Q2
OECD
21
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
Consumer inflation
2.84%
2025
WORLDBANK
21
Scored on a fixed cross-country scale
How this score is built
Each indicator is turned into a 0-100 stress reading, either on a fixed cross-country scale or - where a raw level means different things in different economies - as a percentile against that country's own twenty-year history. Readings average into six pillars, and the pillars into the composite.
Three rules keep a thinly-covered country from looking calm: a country covering fewer than 4 of 6 pillars is refused a composite rather than given a low one; coverage is printed on the face of the score rather than hidden in a footnote; and a stale reading stays visible with its date, marked not scored, instead of being dropped.
Indicators come from OECD, BIS, IMF and World Bank releases at their published frequencies, so the periods above genuinely differ from row to row - a monthly unemployment print and an annual current-account balance can be more than a year apart. See the data license.